governance
5 gates affect this dimension · earliest meaningful change:
2038
US civilian unemployment rate above 10% for 12 consecutive months
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2038
P90 → 2070
Operational moon base: 10 people on the Moon at the same time for 30 days
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2034
P50 2039
P90 → 2055
Operational Mars base: 10 people on Mars surface continuously for 1 month
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2038
P50 2048
P90 → 2075
Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2045
P50 → 2070
P90 → 2120
Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2055
P50 → 2075
P90 → 2150