Dimensions
Each dimension aggregates the gates that affect it. The "earliest meaningful change" is the P50 of the earliest gate touching the dimension — the first year you'd reasonably plan for change.
labor
22 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job · AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month · Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months · Living person sustained for >1 week with full replacement of all body below the neck (head and spinal cord preserved) · Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30% · Construction-automation cuts new-home labor cost by ≥40% · Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport · Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline · eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city · Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year) · FDA or equivalent authority approves a drug (or therapy) that halts or reverses biological aging in humans · Humanoid robots reach 10 million units sold to households globally (cumulative) · Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market · Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots · Operational Mars base: 10 people on Mars surface continuously for 1 month · Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants · EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification · Operational moon base: 10 people on the Moon at the same time for 30 days · Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered · Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities · First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload · US civilian unemployment rate above 10% for 12 consecutive months
housing
17 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months · Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef · LME copper cash settlement sustains at or above each of $12,000 / $15,000 / $20,000 / $25,000 per tonne (≥1 quarter average) · Henry Hub natural gas annual-average spot crosses each of $4 / $5 / $7 / $10 per MMBtu · Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30% · Construction-automation cuts new-home labor cost by ≥40% · Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport · Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline · Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year) · FDA or equivalent authority approves a drug (or therapy) that halts or reverses biological aging in humans · Humanoid robots reach 10 million units sold to households globally (cumulative) · Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market · Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots · Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants · EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification · Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered · Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
travel
13 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job · Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30% · WTI crude front-month trades at or below each of $55 / $50 / $40 per barrel (first touch) · Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport · eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city · Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year) · Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots · Operational Mars base: 10 people on Mars surface continuously for 1 month · Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants · EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification · Operational moon base: 10 people on the Moon at the same time for 30 days · Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered · Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
metals
9 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months · LME copper cash settlement sustains at or above each of $12,000 / $15,000 / $20,000 / $25,000 per tonne (≥1 quarter average) · Spot gold first prints at or above each of $6,000 / $7,000 / $8,000 / $10,000 per ounce (COMEX front-month) · U3O8 spot sustains at or above each of $100 / $150 / $200 / $300 per lb (≥1 quarter) · Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year) · Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots · EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification · Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered · First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload
utilities
9 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months · LME copper cash settlement sustains at or above each of $12,000 / $15,000 / $20,000 / $25,000 per tonne (≥1 quarter average) · Henry Hub natural gas annual-average spot crosses each of $4 / $5 / $7 / $10 per MMBtu · U3O8 spot sustains at or above each of $100 / $150 / $200 / $300 per lb (≥1 quarter) · WTI crude front-month trades at or below each of $55 / $50 / $40 per barrel (first touch) · Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year) · Home-grown vegetables (cucumber + 2 others) reach all-in cost parity with OECD supermarket prices for a household of 4 · Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered · First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload
food
7 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2033
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months · Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef · Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30% · Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline · Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year) · Home-grown vegetables (cucumber + 2 others) reach all-in cost parity with OECD supermarket prices for a household of 4 · Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
food-availability
6 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2033
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months · Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef · Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30% · Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline · Home-grown vegetables (cucumber + 2 others) reach all-in cost parity with OECD supermarket prices for a household of 4 · Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
commodities
5 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
LME copper cash settlement sustains at or above each of $12,000 / $15,000 / $20,000 / $25,000 per tonne (≥1 quarter average) · Spot gold first prints at or above each of $6,000 / $7,000 / $8,000 / $10,000 per ounce (COMEX front-month) · Henry Hub natural gas annual-average spot crosses each of $4 / $5 / $7 / $10 per MMBtu · U3O8 spot sustains at or above each of $100 / $150 / $200 / $300 per lb (≥1 quarter) · WTI crude front-month trades at or below each of $55 / $50 / $40 per barrel (first touch)
governance
5 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2038
Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport · Operational Mars base: 10 people on Mars surface continuously for 1 month · Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants · Operational moon base: 10 people on the Moon at the same time for 30 days · US civilian unemployment rate above 10% for 12 consecutive months
education
3 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job · AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month · Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
childcare
3 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2028
AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month · Humanoid robots reach 10 million units sold to households globally (cumulative) · Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market
healthcare
2 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2048
Living person sustained for >1 week with full replacement of all body below the neck (head and spinal cord preserved) · FDA or equivalent authority approves a drug (or therapy) that halts or reverses biological aging in humans
family
2 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2048
Living person sustained for >1 week with full replacement of all body below the neck (head and spinal cord preserved) · FDA or equivalent authority approves a drug (or therapy) that halts or reverses biological aging in humans
energy
2 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2029
Henry Hub natural gas annual-average spot crosses each of $4 / $5 / $7 / $10 per MMBtu · U3O8 spot sustains at or above each of $100 / $150 / $200 / $300 per lb (≥1 quarter)
finance
2 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2038
Quantum computer uses Shor's algorithm to factor a 2,048-bit RSA integer · US civilian unemployment rate above 10% for 12 consecutive months
technology
1 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2039
Quantum computer uses Shor's algorithm to factor a 2,048-bit RSA integer
security
1 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2039
Quantum computer uses Shor's algorithm to factor a 2,048-bit RSA integer