Dimensions
Each dimension aggregates the gates that affect it. The "earliest meaningful change" is the P50 of the earliest gate touching the dimension โ the first year you'd reasonably plan for change.
labor
13 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2029
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job ยท AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month ยท Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by โฅ 30% ยท Construction-automation cuts new-home labor cost by โฅ40% ยท eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city ยท Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market ยท EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification ยท Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered ยท Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities ยท First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload ยท Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline ยท Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months ยท Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
housing
10 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2029
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by โฅ 30% ยท Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef ยท Construction-automation cuts new-home labor cost by โฅ40% ยท Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market ยท EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification ยท Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered ยท Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities ยท Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline ยท Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months ยท Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
travel
7 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2029
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job ยท Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by โฅ 30% ยท eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city ยท EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification ยท Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered ยท Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities ยท Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
food
5 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2033
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by โฅ 30% ยท Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef ยท Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline ยท Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months ยท Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
food-availability
5 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2033
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by โฅ 30% ยท Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef ยท Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline ยท Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months ยท Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
metals
5 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2031
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification ยท Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered ยท First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload ยท Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months ยท Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
education
3 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2029
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job ยท AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month ยท Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
utilities
3 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2032
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered ยท First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload ยท Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months
childcare
2 gates
Earliest meaningful change: 2029
AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month ยท Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market