metals
5 gates affect this dimension · earliest meaningful change:
2031
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2037
First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2032
P90 2037
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2035
P90 2045
Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2031
P50 2035
P90 2043