metals
9 gates affect this dimension ยท earliest meaningful change:
2028
LME copper cash settlement sustains at or above each of $12,000 / $15,000 / $20,000 / $25,000 per tonne (โฅ1 quarter average)
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2026
P50 2028
P90 2031
Spot gold first prints at or above each of $6,000 / $7,000 / $8,000 / $10,000 per ounce (COMEX front-month)
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2028
P50 2029
P90 2032
U3O8 spot sustains at or above each of $100 / $150 / $200 / $300 per lb (โฅ1 quarter)
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2037
First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2032
P90 2037
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2031
P50 2034
P90 2042
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2035
P90 2045
Real global GDP crosses 1.5ร / 2ร / 3ร / 6ร of 2026 baseline (sustained โฅ1 year)
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2036
P50 2049
P90 โ 2080