labor
22 gates affect this dimension · earliest meaningful change:
2028
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2027
P50 2028
P90 2033
Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2026
P50 2028
P90 2033
Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
AI tutor matches human teacher on K-8 metrics at < $20/month
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2036
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2037
eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city
draft
conf: medium-low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2029
P50 2032
P90 2038
First commercial SMR in OECD providing baseload
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2032
P90 2037
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30%
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2031
P50 2034
P90 2042
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2035
P90 2045
Humanoid robots reach 10 million units sold to households globally (cumulative)
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2031
P50 2035
P90 2043
Construction-automation cuts new-home labor cost by ≥40%
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2032
P50 2037
P90 2045
US civilian unemployment rate above 10% for 12 consecutive months
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2038
P90 → 2070
Operational moon base: 10 people on the Moon at the same time for 30 days
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2034
P50 2039
P90 → 2055
Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2033
P50 2042
P90 → 2053
FDA or equivalent authority approves a drug (or therapy) that halts or reverses biological aging in humans
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2037
P50 2048
P90 → 2072
Operational Mars base: 10 people on Mars surface continuously for 1 month
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2038
P50 2048
P90 → 2075
Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year)
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2036
P50 2049
P90 → 2080
Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2045
P50 → 2070
P90 → 2120
Living person sustained for >1 week with full replacement of all body below the neck (head and spinal cord preserved)
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2055
P50 → 2075
P90 → 2110
Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2055
P50 → 2075
P90 → 2150