travel
13 gates affect this dimension · earliest meaningful change:
2028
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2027
P50 2028
P90 2033
WTI crude front-month trades at or below each of $55 / $50 / $40 per barrel (first touch)
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2037
eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city
draft
conf: medium-low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2029
P50 2032
P90 2038
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30%
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2031
P50 2034
P90 2042
Operational moon base: 10 people on the Moon at the same time for 30 days
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2034
P50 2039
P90 → 2055
Operational Mars base: 10 people on Mars surface continuously for 1 month
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2038
P50 2048
P90 → 2075
Real global GDP crosses 1.5× / 2× / 3× / 6× of 2026 baseline (sustained ≥1 year)
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2036
P50 2049
P90 → 2080
Company owns territory and governs it: a baby born there carries a company passport
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2045
P50 → 2070
P90 → 2120
Mars settlement reaches 10,000 simultaneous inhabitants
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
2050
P10 2055
P50 → 2075
P90 → 2150