travel
7 gates affect this dimension · earliest meaningful change:
2029
AI agent autonomously handles 30%+ of a typical knowledge-work job
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2037
eVTOL air-taxi service exceeds 1,000 paid trips/day in a major OECD city
draft
conf: medium-low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2029
P50 2032
P90 2038
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by ≥ 30%
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2031
P50 2035
P90 2043