housing
10 gates affect this dimension ยท earliest meaningful change:
2029
Mass-market general-purpose humanoid robot reaches < $20,000 retail in an OECD market
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2026
P50 2029
P90 2034
Robotaxi reaches profitable unit economics in 5+ US cities
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2027
P50 2029
P90 2034
EV/robot BOM drops 30% via Li + REE supply diversification
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2028
P50 2031
P90 2037
Autonomous trucking + last-mile delivery cuts labor share of freight cost by โฅ 30%
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Residential solar+storage < $0.04/kWh delivered
draft
conf: medium
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2033
P90 2040
Autonomous robot crew drop-deployed on empty land produces positive ROI in 24 months
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2030
P50 2035
P90 2045
Humanoid robots build a factory that manufactures more humanoid robots
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2031
P50 2035
P90 2043
Cell-cultured beef at retail price parity with conventional ground beef
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2032
P50 2036
P90 2045
Construction-automation cuts new-home labor cost by โฅ40%
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2032
P50 2037
P90 2045
Cucumber retail price drops by 80% from 2026 baseline
draft
conf: low
2027
2030
2033
2036
2040
2045
P10 2034
P50 2042
P90 2055